This three-part series will highlight three waves of prospects: The first wave focused on the youth that were called up in 2018, the second will feature prospects expected to be called up this season, and the third will dive deeper into the next wave of Blue Jays top prospects currently brewing in the lower minors.
Not included are September call ups that didn’t make the 2019 Opening Day roster and fringe prospects not expected to be part of the future core.
Wave Two: Cornerstones
Other names to consider: Jon Harris, Zach Jackson, Kirby Snead.
Overview
The 2018 season ended with a busy trade deadline and glimpses into the future with several rookie debuts and September call ups.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. stringed together a historic 11 multi-hit game streak that broke a team record that had previously held for decades. After a long-awaited arrival due to myriad injuries, we saw Ryan Borucki - a solid rotation piece - finish the year leading all Blue Jays starters in ERA+. His catching partner Danny Jansen dazzled with a two-run homer in the 2018 MLB Futures Game - a game featuring many of the top minor league prospects in baseball. Rowdy Tellez and Billy McKinney also flashed power bats in September, accompanied by pitching debuts from Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, and David Paulino.
While all of this happened on the MLB team last season, shockwaves were felt throughout the farm system as the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the Blue Jays’ AA affiliate, won its first Eastern League Championship since 2011. The Fisher Cats were led by a core of promising young players that also brought the Dunedin Blue Jays a Florida State League co-championship back in 2017.
The noise this group was making grew louder each passing week, and a storm was brewing on its way up the minor leagues. Everybody waited anxiously for its arrival. Fastforwarding to today, the future has arrived.
Leading this wave are three sons of former MLB all-stars, including two Hall of Famers. All three sons were ranked inside the top 10 prospects in the Blue Jays’ farm system and given considerable recognition in many baseball publications such as Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.
It’s no secret that the core of the rebuild will be highlighted by Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio. This legacy trio that ripped through the minor leagues is a well-balanced lineup of hitting, power, speed, advanced plate discipline, and positional versatility. Vlad Jr. has an unprecedented 80-grade hit tool and otherworldly bat speed that destroys baseballs at exit velocities upward of 120 mph; Bo Bichette has flashed prodigious bat-to-ball skills paired with leadoff hitter speed and the glove to secure the middle infield; and Cavan Biggio possesses left-handed power, elite on-base ability, and the positional flexibility to play virtually any of the infield and corner outfield positions.
But beyond the three cornerstones that lay the foundation of this rebuild, there are several talented names that round out this wave of prospects.
The list includes three former top homegrown kids in Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, and T.J. Zeuch. You’ll also find trade acquisitions Trent Thornton, Andrew Sopko, Julian Merryweather, Jacob Waguespack, David Paulino, and Corey Copping in this wave. Depth pieces in speedy outfielder Jonathan Davis, Canadian pitcher Jordan Romano, and defensive catcher Reese McGuire round out this group.
Why We Should Be Excited About Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Once in a generation, a baseball team will luck out and either draft or internationally sign a young player that sets themselves apart from all the rest. For the Blue Jays, this player is undoubtedly Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero who played eight seasons with the Montreal Expos and six seasons with the Angels.
Many highly touted prospects never find success in the major leagues in a sport where #1 overall draft picks end up busting regularly: Brady Aiken in 2014 (not signed), Mark Appel in 2013, and Tim Beckham in 2008 are just a handful of recent examples.
Draft picks aside, even guys considered top 10 prospects by MLB Pipeline often never become good MLB players:
Top 10 Ranked prospects by MLB Pipeline vs Total Career fWAR
Examples are abundant and it’s not a pretty list, but there is really no sure thing when it comes to baseball prospects. Whether it’s high draft picks or consensus top 100 prospects, the likelihood of a player turning into a pumpkin before or at the major leagues is significant. Even for guys ranked the #1 prospect in baseball like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., there are always questions wondering if he’ll truly succeed in the majors, let alone becoming a bonafide MLB superstar as touted.
One award that has consistently recognized prospects that have gone onto have successful MLB careers is Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. Winners of this award have enjoyed varied degrees of success ranging from All-Stars, Gold Glovers, Rookies of the Year, MVP candidates, Cy Young award winners, and Silver Sluggers.
Young Vlad joins a pretty good company of successful major league players. Even Byron Buxton is starting to turn his career around, while Snell, Moncada, and Acuna are literally just getting started.
Vladdy has demonstrated an elite bat at third base and has always been the youngest player at every level he’s played. His Steamer projection (and keep in mind that this is for a 20-year-old rookie) is .306/.368/.511 with an OPS of .879 and 138 wRC+. Those numbers are staggering and Steamer projections tend to be a bit on the conservative side.
Even after the inauspicious start to his MLB career, Vlad flashed great bat-to-ball ability and exit velocities - numbers that get fans really excited about his future - including a recent 118.9 mph laser that literally ripped through Tim Anderson’s glove on May 11, 2019. He also had his first two-homer game on May 15, 2019 - both clocked over 110 mph and launched for 430+ ft.
Since moving up to 2nd in the batting order on May 10th, Vlad has been fantastic in 16 games: .295/.361/.591, .952 OPS, and 151 wRC+. During this 23-game stretch, he’s hit 7 home runs, 5 doubles, and 15 RBIs with only 14 strikeouts and 9 walks. Both his defense and run times have been better than expected, which mitigates at least some concerns about his chances of sticking at third base in the long-term.
Despite the slow start to his rookie campaign, his numbers now look pretty good after 33 games: .256/.326/.472, .798 OPS, and 112 wRC+. His Statcast numbers (.293 xBA, .373 xwOBA, and .509 xSLG) indicate that things should continue to trend upwards.
Why We Should Be Excited About Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette’s elite bat-to-ball skills are well-documented, but last season in New Hampshire he also flashed an ability on the basepaths, stealing 32 bases at Double-A. His improvements on the field have given the organization high hopes that he can stick at shortstop for the foreseeable future.
Bo is the son of Dante Bichette, a four-time All-Star and Silver Slugger-winner that made his name playing seven seasons for the Colorado Rockies. Bo Bichette was ranked #7 on the Top 100 Prospects by Baseball America in 2019. Like Vlad, he was also one of the youngest players at every level he played. There are encouraging signs of an advanced plate approach paired with plus power in his bat.
There were questions about his swing since 2016 when he became a draft prospect, but those questions were quickly silenced after Bichette crushed Rookie-ball and proceeded to dominate the Midwest League by putting up a line of .384/.448/.623, with an OPS of 1.071 and 201 wRC+ in 70 games as a 19-year-old. Bichette became the first teenager to win the minor league batting title in over 50 years.
If Bichette sticks at short and reaches his ceiling offensively, there’s a potential all-star infielder for many years to come. An unfortunate hand injury has slowed his development this season, but he’s just returned to game action and hopes to come back strong in the second half for the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. Though it’s not out of the question he makes his debut in 2019, it’s more likely Bichette will join the others up in the big leagues in early 2020.
Why We Should Be Excited About Cavan Biggio
Enjoying a recent promotion is Cavan Biggio, son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio who was a seven-time MLB All-Star, four-time Gold Glover, and five-time Silver Slugger-winner that played 20 seasons with the Houston Astros.
Cavan Biggio had a breakout season at Double-A in 2018 and won the Eastern League MVP while batting .252/.388/.499 with an OPS of .887 and wRC+ of 145. He followed that up with a monstrous Triple-A debut to begin 2019 with a .370/.500/.644 line and an OPS of 1.144 in the month of April.
Mostly a second baseman by trade, Biggio has shown great versatility by playing first base, third base, and, recently, right field. He has cut down his strikeout rate significantly from 26.3% last year to 16.2% this year, while simultaneously improving his walk rate from 17.8% to 19.7%. For a Blue Jays team that currently sits near the bottom of the league in strikeouts and runs produced, Biggio’s left-handed bat provides a great addition to a lineup sorely lacking players that can get on base.
His recent promotion on May 24th has surprised many people, as there were speculations that the team would wait until after the Super Two date to promote him. We’re dealing with a small sample, but Biggio has already demonstrated a terrific plate approach, an ability to see a lot of pitches and take walks, and a serviceable glove at any of the defensive assignments he’s been given. He also crushed a baseball on May 26th that reached the 400-level and landed in the Roy Halladay suites at the Rogers Centre.
What’s the Deal with Alford and Davis?
Both Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis have plus speed and a good glove in center field. Davis went on a 16-game hot streak (.306/.493/.633, 1.125 OPS) for the Bisons after returning from injury before getting called up to the majors. Davis always was a solid defensive outfielder and a burner on the basepaths with 26 stolen bases last season in AA/AAA. He’s struggled offensively with the Blue Jays, batting .143/.176/.204, but he’s always been projected to be a 4th outfielder or bench utility type due to inconsistencies with his bat.
Alford is a bit younger and, in 2015, was formerly ranked the #2 prospect in the Blue Jays’ organization by MLB Pipeline. His bat is still on the raw side as his baseball development was delayed due to playing college football as part of a pre-draft agreement made between he and the Blue Jays. Alford put up fair numbers in the minor leagues and was even called to make his MLB debut in 2017, but was ultimately set back by injuries. In 2019, Alford has struggled at Triple-A to start the season but has picked it up recently, batting .276/.355/.429 with a .783 OPS in the month of May. If Alford can tone down his strikeout rate and improve his on-base ability enough that his plus speed tool can be better utilized, there's an opportunity for him to win a job in a lineup begging for production from the outfield.
What About the Rotation?
Prior to 2018, the Blue Jays didn’t hit any jackpots with any of their high-profile pitching prospects, as Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and T.J. Zeuch have all struggled or failed to measure up to lofty expectations. In an ideal world, all three would be soon-ready rotation pieces for the main club, but two have been plagued by injuries to start 2019 and the third is most likely a bullpen piece moving forward.
It’s important to note that despite there being nine pitchers listed in the table at the beginning, there is not a single blue chip pitching prospect in this wave. The outfield prospects in this exercise are also likely bench pieces, as the system is severely lacking in high quality outfield depth. Most of the up and coming talent is in the infield - an issue that the front office will need to address at some point during this rebuild.
The price for the 2015 and 2016 postseason runs was quite steep, as many pitching prospects were dealt away to bolster those playoff teams. Though these guys don’t sting as much as Noah Syndergaard, a few of them would easily fit into the current MLB rotation or bullpen - Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman, Kendall Graveman, Miguel Castro, and Conner Greene. It’s easy to see why there’s a bit of a missing gap between the Stroman and Sanchez group that came up in 2014 and the next wave of arms currently in New Hampshire.
To give credit to the front office where credit is due, they’ve succeeded in reacquiring some pitching prospects to help bridge that gap - Pannone, Thornton, Waguespack, Paulino, and Merryweather. However, only Thornton seems to be a legitimate rotation arm so far.
Andrew Sopko and Kirby Snead, both of which should be classified as mere pitching depth, were recently promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and may see time with the big club before long. Sopko is more likely to get called up if the rotation continues to get tested, following suit to Trent Thornton’s surprisingly early MLB debut. Another candidate would be Julian Merryweather if he’s able to return healthy from his 2018 Tommy John Surgery.
Sopko, having pitched at Double-A since 2016, had enjoyed moderate success repeating the level this season, pitching to a tune of a 2.34 ERA/3.50 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, and .183 opponent’s batting average in 34.2 IP before his promotion. Still only 24, it’s been a rough start for him at Buffalo, but he seems to have some upside as rotation depth.
T.J. Zeuch is currently recovering from a lat strain and would likely need a full season of development in Triple-A. The former first-round pick is a groundball pitcher that stands tall at 6’7” and projected as a backend rotation piece.
Jordan Romano was returned to the Blue Jays after getting plucked during the Rule 5 draft and has recently joined the Bisons in a bullpen role after 25 starts for the NH Fisher Cats in 2018. The Markham, Ontario native had a solid season last year in the rotation, but has been more effective in the bullpen this year. This change of roles could accelerate his timeline to the major leagues. Romano’s fastball can reach the upper 90s and he pairs it with a good slider and serviceable changeup. It was a rough start to the season for him, but since May 17th he’s put up a 0.87 ERA, 1.41 FIP, 16 K/2 BB, 13.94 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 and opp BA .118 in 10 ⅓ IP. These are pretty solid numbers in seven appearances - especially the strikeouts to walk numbers.
This shift from rotation to a bullpen role is important to note because there are several other arms on the Bisons roster, such as Sean Reid-Foley and David Paulino, that could really benefit from a similar path. Both have good arms that throw major league stuff but have well-documented command issues that lead to an overall ineffectiveness as starters.
To put it kindly, neither Reid-Foley nor Paulino has been overly successful in Triple-A Buffalo. In 54.1 IP, Reid-Foley’s put up a 6.46 ERA and 6.01 FIP. This is highlighted by an abysmal 7.12 BB/9 and 1.60 WHIP. Paulino has played only 4 games since April and has a 5.09 ERA, 6.62 K/9, and 4.08 BB/9 in 17.2 IP. The most discouraging sign is he never made it past the 5th inning in 3 of his 4 starts.
It can be tough to give up on developing a pitcher for the rotation, but with the recent influx of multi-inning MLB arms, value can still be derived from a failed starter. Arms that struggle with varying issues like command, health, pitchability, and the inability to maintain effectiveness deeper into a game can sometimes find success as a reliever. In the day and age of openers and multi-inning relievers, bullpen arms are more valuable than ever before, and a major league career in the bullpen is always better than being stuck in the minor leagues for the duration of a baseball career.
Many scenarios could play out at the 2019 trade deadline. It’s undeniable that many question marks are being raised with the future of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Ken Giles. If these assets don’t get extended, it’s critical for the team to acquire top tier assets in return to improve the chances of this rebuild. If young pitching assets are not attainable, they ideally need to get impact players in return that can complement this young core and solve the rotation issues during the offseason.
Please check back next week for Part 3 of this series, which will cover the third wave of prospects, including the supporting cast and the top upper minor pitching prospects in the Blue Jays’ farm system.
Thanks for reading "The First Three Waves of Blue Jays Prospects, Part Two - The Cornerstones" by BlueRocky. If you have any questions or comments relating to this article, we encourage you to leave them below.
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