The elusive triple-digit fastball. A pitch that is considered the gold standard and highly sought after by all young kids that dream of one day becoming an MLB pitcher.
The two most devastating weapons in a pitcher's arsenal are arguably a well-located heater and a timely used pin-point changeup. A pitching prospect that can command these two pitches effectively can often find themselves very successful in the big leagues.
The Blue Jays' top pitching prospect, Nate Pearson, has been one of the biggest rising stars in the minor leagues this season, jumping all the way to #16 overall in Baseball America's top 100 prospect list.
There’s been much debate regarding Nate Pearson’s fastball. Various publications have graded him anywhere between a 70 to an 80 grade on the 20-80 grading scale. But there are only a handful of pitchers in baseball - let alone the minor leagues - with a true 80-grade fastball.
It’s a short list, but this list includes MLB flamethrowers Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Hicks.
Aroldis Chapman has thrown 64 triple-digit fastballs in 34.0 innings pitched. He has an average 9.9 inches of vertical drop (21% better than average), with 3.4 inches of horizontal break (53% worse than average) on his 4-seamer. It generates 21.7% whiffs and a 21.5% strikeout rate. The most unique thing about Chapman is the fastball is coming left-handed, which is rarely seen velocity from a southpaw, and tunnels it well in a 6-4 frame and great arm-extension.
In 34 IP, he’s thrown 606 fastballs or 65.9% of his pitches, 73.8% if you count pitches classified as sinkers when he had a little extra movement on his fastball. He averages 98.7 mph and topped out at 103.6 MPH this season with an average 2494 RPM. His “sinkers” have averaged 100.9 MPH topping out at 104.4 MPH with a 2544 RPM with slightly better vertical and much better horizontal break at 11.4 inches and 12.3 inches. He also sprays it all over the plate:
via baseballsavant.mlb.com
Jordan Hicks has thrown 206 triple-digit fastballs in 28.2 innings pitched. Contrast to Chapman, Hicks throws sinkers with terrific movement. He has an average 16.6 inches of vertical drop (4% better than average), with 15.8 inches of horizontal break (6% better than average) on his sinker. It generates only 11.1% whiffs and 13.2% strikeout rate, but it makes his slider play way up with a 57.1 K%. He also has a ridiculous 67.2% ground ball rate compared to Chapman’s 46.1%.
Hicks has thrown 976 sinkers or 76.1% of his pitches. He averages 100.5 MPH and topped out at 105 MPH this season with an average 2080 RPM. He’s also able to spray it all over the plate:
via baseballsavant.mlb.com
Both these pitchers are complete animals. To throw that hard and be that effective, there’s only been a handful of names in baseball history to consistently produce these type of numbers on their heaters.
Another notable reliever with this type of gas is Tayron Guerrero, the Miami Marlin’s pitcher has thrown 101 triple-digit fastballs in 31.0 IP.
Altogether, 23 pitchers have touched triple-digits this season as of July 4th. But no other pitcher in the entire major leagues has thrown more than 20 triple-digit fastballs aside from Hicks, Guerrero, and Chapman.
But one thing we realize right away is that these pitchers are bullpen arms. It’s easier to throw gas out as a reliever when you’re only expected to get 3 outs for a save. It’s another thing to start a game, try to go 6 or 7 innings and throw 100 pitches, while still touching triple-digit velocity.
As of July 4, Gerrit Cole is the only starting pitcher in 2019 with more than 3 registered pitches reaching the 100 MPH mark in the whole season, with 8 pitches in 109.2 innings pitched. Noah Syndergaard has reached it only twice this year in 100.2 innings pitched.
On July 3, when Nate Pearson returned from the DL, he threw 28 pitches and 1.1 IP in a rehab game that scheduled him for only 2 innings. Pearson touched 100 MPH on the second batter he faced, struck out Phillies no. 1 prospect Alec Bohm on a 102 MPH heater on the 5th pitch, then proceeded to light-up the radar guns with 100 MPH swinging strike and 103 MPH against Darick Hall.
That 103 MPH marks the fastest pitch he’s thrown recently since hitting 104 in the Arizona Fall League.
In just 1.1 innings and 28 pitches, he threw 22 fastballs clocked 97 MPH or higher, while reaching triple-digits more than 6 times This one abbreviated outing almost bested Gerrit Cole’s entire season of 109.2 innings pitched of 8 triple-digit heaters and triples Noah Syndergaard’s entire season.
For a quick look at Pearson’s strikeout ability, here’s a short clip of his 8 strikeouts on May 7:
via New Hampshire Fisher Cats' Twitter (https://twitter.com/FisherCats)
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs also tweeted this out during the Arizona Fall League when he scouted Nate Pearson:
No, this is not an outlier. Nate Pearson has proceeded to throw absolute fire as a starter during his entire 2 innings / 5 innings workload management since Dunedin (A+). In every start this season, Pearson has sat 97-98 MPH and topped out at roughly 100-102 MPH.
As I mentioned before, Nate Pearson currently ranks as the #16 top MLB prospect by Baseball America. They currently have three pitching prospects listed on the Top 100 with an 80-grade fastball: Michael Kopech (23), Dylan Cease (24), and Hunter Greene (57).
But why is Baseball America so down on Pearson’s fastball with only a 70 grade?
Not only is Pearson the highest rated prospect out of the four names in their most recent update, he is the most likely pitcher to remain in the rotation. There is severe injury and/or reliever risk in Kopech, Cease, and Greene. Aside from a mild groin injury that recently knocked Pearson out of action for 2 weeks for precautionary reasons, he’s been relatively healthy this season and had no issues with his arm. Nate Pearson’s biggest injury so far has been a freak-accident line drive that broke his arm last season, whereas Kopech just had Tommy John Surgery in 2019.
Dylan Cease pitched 5 innings for the White Sox on July 3, throwing 55 fastballs and hitting 99 mph only twice. He did not touch triple digits. His fastball averaged 96.7 mph and also had below average vertical break at 15.4 inches (12% below average) and 2.2 inches of horizontal break (71% below average). Not only is his fastball “flat”, the velocity is nowhere close.
Sorry, but that’s a far cry from Nate Pearson, who is touching 101-102 mph every other start. Pearson is throwing Chapman-calibre gas while pitching from the rotation and going up to 5 innings deep.
Though we don’t have any public data on Nate Pearson’s fastball movement in AA, Brooks Baseball kindly provided some data on his appearances in the AFL, with 10.51 inches of vertical and 5.02 inches of horizontal break. Both of these numbers are better than Aroldis Chapman’s 4-seamer. That’s a much more lively fastball with giddy-up rising action and more horizontal movement than Dylan Cease.
So why is Baseball America so down on Pearson?
The truth is that Baseball America do regular top list updates while keeping large tabs on the minor leagues, prep baseball, college baseball, and international signings. But they seldom do tool updates on their prospects as their database is massive. The 70-grade on Pearson’s fastball was given out after his AFL appearances and 1.2 innings pitched in Dunedin last season before his season ending injury. If BA were to update their list now, Pearson would most likely be given a 75 or 80-grade fastball comparable to Kopech, Cease, and Greene.
We look forward to seeing Big Nate in the MLB All-Star Futures game on July 7, where the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospect will showcase his ridiculous potential 80-grade fastball.
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