Jose Bautista’s iconic bat flip after a rollercoaster 53-minute 7th inning in Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS. Edwin Encarnacion’s 11th inning walk-off home run to win the 2016 AL Wild Card Game. Josh Donaldson’s epic slide home to clinch the 2016 ALDS.
The best Blue Jays teams assembled in recent memory have produced some exciting playoff moments only comparable to the World Series squads that brought home the trophy in 1992 and 1993. But when the team became sellers at the 2018 trade deadline and the veterans departed, a new generation of Blue Jays were slowly ushered in.
The turnover was substantial. Only 8 players returned this season from 2018’s Opening Day roster. Pillar was traded and Axford is on a minor league contract, so only 6 players on the active roster remain from last year: Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Justin Smoak, Luke Maile, Randal Grichuk, and Ryan Tepera.
It would be understandable for fans to tune in today and not recognize many faces.
Following a rebuild can be difficult - this is especially true in baseball with long grinds of 162 games. The future can sometimes look bleak. A lot of patience is required as prospects develop in the farm system - a process that could take upwards of five years.
Die-hard fans following the team may have seen the writing on the wall as early as 2017. These same fans have been lobbying to call up the top prospects for over a year.
The Blue Jays’ farm system was ranked 20th by Baseball America in 2017, but they currently boast the third-best MLB farm system in 2019. They’re also the 5th ranked system by MLB Pipeline. This is a significant jump in just two years - a testament to both the scouting department and the great player development team.
While young talent continues to join the system through the MLB draft, it was further bolstered through trade (e.g. Billy McKinney, Trent Thornton, Hector Perez) and
international free agency signings (e.g. Lourdes Gurriel Jr).
But in the prospecting world, nothing is guaranteed; development is not a linear thing. Most kids that get drafted or sign internationally never reach their ceilings. In fact, the majority never even reach the major leagues. But teams with solid farm systems will have a flowing stream of young talent awaiting their opportunity to earn a major league roster spot. At times, teams will hit on a franchise player they can build around such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
This three-part series will highlight three waves of prospects: The first wave will focus on the youth that were called up in 2018, the second will feature prospects expected to be called up this season, and the third will dive deeper into the next wave of Blue Jays top prospects currently brewing in the lower minors.
Not included are September call ups that didn’t make the 2019 Opening Day roster and fringe prospects not expected to be part of the future core.
Wave One: Building Blocks
Overview
The group of prospects that came up last year arrived when the Blue Jays became sellers for the first time since Ross Atkins became general manager. It truly signaled the end of the previous Blue Jays era.
Multiple attempts were made to acquire prospects, causing the Blue Jays to trade away Steve Pearce, J.A. Happ, Seung-hwan Oh, Roberto Osuna, John Axford, Aaron Loup, Curtis Granderson, and Josh Donaldson. During the offseason, the team also flipped Aledmys Diaz and Russell Martin for prospects while Troy Tulowitzki was granted his outright release.
The first wave of prospects included Danny Jansen, Ryan Borucki, and two infield bats in Gurriel Jr. and Tellez. Ureña and McKinney are young pieces with some upside, and Pannone might be a valuable lefty out of the bullpen.
Brandon Drury has accrued 289 games with the Diamondbacks and no longer qualifies as a prospect, but can fit in a utility role with some upside to his bat.
David Paulino and Sean Reid-Foley were notable brief call-ups towards the end of the season. Both arms flashed potential but could use more development time in the minors and would likely get an extended opportunity down the road.
The first wave of Blue Jays prospects flashed promise of a younger lineup moving forward, transitioning away from being one of the oldest rosters in the majors during 2016. There are many building blocks here, including a promising young catcher, two solid bats, two bench pieces with upside, and two young left-handed pitchers. These guys will lay the groundwork for the next wave of prospects expected to be the key cornerstone pieces to this rebuild.
Why We Should Be Excited About Danny Jansen
Danny Jansen is an elite catching prospect and was ranked the #42 prospect by Baseball America in 2018. He has good offensive upside if his minor league success translates to the major leagues.
Since his vision correction in 2017, Jansen put up a .323/.400/.484 line between A+/AA/AAA in 2017 and a .275/.390/.473 line in 2018 for Buffalo before his MLB debut. In the minors, he presented strong strikeout (9 to 13.6%) and walk rates (10.5 to 14.1%) since 2017 and is still only 24 years old. The team has not promoted a catching prospect into their ranks with this much upside since Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia.
In his brief debut in 2018, Danny Jansen put up a respectable .247/.347/.432, .779 OPS and 115 wRC+ in 31 games. He also flashed solid power, racking up 20 hits, 6 doubles, and 3 home runs with a .185 ISO and 9.5% walk rate in 81 at-bats. Not only does he hit for power from the catcher position, he has the potential to get on-base for other power hitters in the lineup.
With the departure of Russell Martin, the team is excited about their depth of catching prospects brewing in the farm system behind Jansen, including Reese McGuire, Riley Adams, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno.
Why We Should Be Excited About Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel Jr. is a solid bat with power potential. Ranked the #81 prospect by Baseball America in 2018, he can fill multiple positions in both infield and outfield, currently being groomed at left field. He had a historical 11-game multi-hit streak between July 11 to July 29 - the first since Tony Perez in 1973. Gurriel was also the first rookie to have a 10 game multi-hit streak since “Shoeless” Joe Jackson in 1911. The previous franchise record, held by Tony Fernandez, was 10 multi-hit games. That record had stood since 1986.
Gurriel Jr. had a rough start to 2019, batting a pedestrian .175/.250/.275 (42 wRC+) in his first 13 games. He was sent down to Triple-A Buffalo on April 15 for a stress leave after repeated defensive lapses on the field. Some have speculated the cause to be a case of the yips. During this time, the development coaches in Buffalo experimented with Gurriel in left field - a position the organization desperately need offensive production from.
Since getting recalled on May 24th as an outfielder, at the time of writing, Gurriel Jr. has 7 hits (including 2 doubles and 3 homers), 4 RBIs, and 5 runs in 4 games. His seasonal OPS has improved from .525 to .875, and his 42 wRC+ improved to 130 wRC+. He is one of the only long-term contract commitments on the Blue Jays’ payroll, currently under team control until 2024.
Why We Should Be Excited About Ryan Borucki
Borucki is one of the few left-handed starting pitching prospects in the system and in 2017 was ranked the #10 organizational prospect by Baseball America in the Blue Jays’ farm system. He had a successful debut in 2018, with 17 career starts sporting an ERA of 3.87 and WHIP of 1.32 in 97.2 innings pitched. Borucki led the Blue Jays’ rotation in 2018 with 1.6 fWAR and 109 ERA+. He has a plus changeup paired with a low 90s two-seamer and a slider.
Borucki relies on movement and craftiness that draw comparisons to previous Blue Jays’ pitcher Mark Buehrle. He’s also been jokingly compared as a left-handed version of Marco Estrada due to his solid changeup.
Other Notes
After impressive small sample September auditions by Billy McKinney (114 wRC+) and Rowdy Tellez (151 wRC+), both made the 2019 roster out of spring training. Tellez has already demonstrated solid raw power, leading the team with 9 home runs in 46 games and a solid .218 ISO in 2019. There are some doubts about their performance in an everyday role and questions about their long-term defensive homes.
Please check back later this week for Part 2 of this series, which will cover the second wave of prospects, including key pieces that will lay the foundation of this rebuild.
Thanks for reading "The First Three Waves of Blue Jays Prospects: Part One - Building Blocks" by BlueRocky. If you have any questions or comments relating to this article, we encourage you to leave them below.
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