I've now presented Z-score spreadsheets for hitting prospects in Low-A and full season A ball. You can think of the scores as a very crude measure of what the players' age and 2018 statistics indicate about their measurable prospect value.
As a brief summary, I am using a group of statistics that formed the basis of Chris Mitchell's KATOH projection system - statistics that correlate with projectable MLB WAR, namely: age, K%, ISO, BABIP. That might seem like a weird set of stats so I would encourage you to read the discussion in the previous post for the method, rationale, and the admitted shortcomings (LINK). I am displaying BB% for now because I will use it when we get closer to the majors.
Here is the LINK for the complete spreadsheets for high A ball, being the Florida State, Carolina, and California leagues. I used a 150 PA inclusion cutoff again, and the sample sizes range from 112 to 155 players. There is Blue Jays relevancy in every league.
Carolina League
Top 20:
Santiago Espinal checks into the league top 20 based on his A+ sample while he was still in the Red Sox system. Espinal has received some mainstream attention this offseason and is talked about as a plus defender at SS with plus speed, so we can slide him up this list a little bit based on arbitrary adjustments for position and legs. Espinal, who held his own in AA after putting up these A+ stats, is underrated. He should probably be in your Blue Jays top 15, ahead of the tumbling Logan Warmoth.
The Nationals' Luis Garcia seems like a potential stud - an 18-year-old, playing the infield, and producing in A+. That's a rare combination.
Ryan McKenna could be an Orioles prospect you haven't heard about, but the 21-year-old CF might have a case for being their best OF prospect. The 2015 fourth rounder sounds like a more viable CF defender than Yusniel Diaz, and Austin Hays tumbled tremendously with his disaster 2018 in AA.
Demi Orimoloye checks in at 63rd out of 140; Demi does not have a good probability of an MLB outcome according to his stats.
California League
Top 20:
Just like Espinal above and Chad Spanberger in A Ball, we see a Blue Jays 2018 trade acquisition checking in on a league top 20. That's a trend - Toronto probably cares about this statistical information in one way or another.
Forrest Wall's A+ numbers while he was still a Rockie were strong, as far as projectable statistics are concerned, mostly because of a high BABIP. That can be an indication that a prospect hits the ball hard, runs well, or both. Wall also does not get any positive adjustment for his positional value or his speed (at least not directly) so you could argue that he is undervalued slightly on this list. Of course, he was repeating A+ in 2018 and in AA his numbers tumbled a bit, at a glance, so he probably won't rank as well when I run those scores in the next iteration of this series.
Florida State League
Top 23:
Kevin Smith, the star of my A Ball lists, just misses the FSL top 20. Smith's K rate became a red flag after his promotion, but his ability to pound the ball while being roughly a standard deviation younger than the league mean scores him points.
Brock Lundquist was the sleeper star on Dunedin though, thanks to positive statistical indicators across the board but mostly due to a lofty BABIP, which should be considered a good thing for a prospect. Lundquist can clearly hit the ball, and his contact rate actually improved in A+ after his promotion from Lansing, although the ISO dipped. He has never been described as fast or anything more than a LF defender, so you can knock him down a few pegs if you want.
Ivan Castillo is no longer with the organization - I believe he was released and signed with the Padres. He was a minor league rule 5 pick before 2018.
As far as other Dunedin players go: Eduard Pinto and Joshua Palacios both ranked in the top 34. Orozco, Mineo, and Riley Adams had positive (above average) scores. Logan Warmoth did not, ranking 101st out of the 154 player sample, reflecting a very poor season from the 2017 first rounder.
Kacy Clemens' terrible A+ numbers have him 138th on the list, which is worth pointing out because his statistics from Lansing during his 119 PA stint were better than ostensible Stat Scouting darling Ryan Noda's across the board, aside from age. I hate to be a wet blanket (not really), but Clemens is perhaps a recent cautionary tale for Noda fans to acknowledge.
Cover image source: Joel Dinda on Flickr (LINK)
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