The five of us (Nick, Michael, Andrew, Alan, and John) ranked our top ~40 Blue Jays prospects to put together this aggregate top 50 list. You can listen to the podcast about the list here or here:
Editor's Note: The podcast was recorded before we finished the article. The list order ultimately changed very slightly toward the back-end of the top 30.
Under each name you’ll see a 95th percentile outcome and a 50th percentile outcome. The 95th percentile outcome represents what we think the prospect’s reasonable ceiling is - they’ll only become this good or better in 5% of an infinite number of universes. The 50th percentile outcome represents their more probable developmental outcome. If the prospect’s potential outcomes are normally distributed, most of the results will be pretty similar to their 50th percentile outcome. We might express the outcome in WAR, by making a player comparison, or by a role description. We think this 95 and 50th percentile information gives a decent illustration of ceiling and risk, and is a lot better than the “Future Value” (FV) numbers you see in other places which kind of muddle the potential vs. risk tension. Sometimes we sprinkle in other percentile outcomes like 99th or 75th for specific reasons.
You will also see listed each player’s current position, the highest level at which they have played, and the age which they will be as of July 31, 2019.
A brief caveat for this list - none of us are scouts. This list is based on profile evaluation and opinions as supported by publicly available information like statistics, tweets, GIFs, YouTube videos, news articles, and actual scouting reports.
You can also check out this list in a neat and tidy spreadsheet:
Without further ado, let's get to the rankings (insert drum roll)...
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | AAA | 20
95% - Miguel Cabrera / Albert Pujols; the best hitter in baseball and a Hall of Famer
50% - Prince Fielder / Mark Teixeira; a great hitter and All Star level player
What could we even add about this guy? He might be the most hyped prospect ever – if not at least the most since Bryce Harper – and it’s every bit deserved. You already know everything there is to know about him, so we’ll just mention that you can expect Vlad to be called up to Toronto as soon as the Jays gain an extra year of team control on his contract, which should be early in the season (the exact date is yet to be determined).
Steamer projects Vlad to be the 11th best hitter (138 wRC+) in the majors in 2019 as a rookie, and that’s even in a somewhat abbreviated season due to the contract consideration thing.
Vlad is bananas. (Michael)
2. Danny Jansen | C | MLB | 24
95% - Russell Martin’s career
50% - League average catcher
Jansen seemingly emerged from nowhere in 2017 after getting prescription glasses to correct his poor eyesight. All you need to see the positive effects that this change had on his game is to compare his numbers pre-2017 to the numbers he put up over the past two seasons: the ISO and BABIP spiked (which makes all the sense in the world if you assume that he’s now swinging with more conviction at the pitches that he sees more easily), the K rate dropped significantly, and his BB rate improved more than slightly as well. This was all accomplished against more advanced competition, as he climbed the minor league ladder. And that’s just on the offensive side of the ball. It’s an easy assumption to make that there would be positive effects on his defense as well – aspects like receiving, blocking, throwing more accurately, and pitch-framing would obviously benefit from better eyesight.
In a limited sample at the MLB level in September 2018 (95 PA), Jansen exhibited an advanced eye at the plate and elite pitch recognition skills, which falls in line with the improved abilities he showed at AA and AAA before that. His 6.8 SwStr% ranks him among the top 10% of all MLB hitters with at least 50 PA. He also looked very athletic behind the plate, especially for a big man.
Steamer600, which assumes the same amount of plate appearances for all hitters, projects him as a 2.8 WAR MLB catcher in 2019, good enough for 5th-best catcher in the entire majors. This slots him behind only Buster Posey (3.6), J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal (3.0), and Gary Sanchez (2.9).
TL;DR: Danny Jansen became an overnight legitimate prospect and you should be very excited about this guy if you’re a Blue Jays fan, which I assume you are if you’re reading this. (Michael)
3. Bo Bichette | SS | AA | 21
95% - All Star shortstop with multiple 5+ WAR seasons
50% - Starlin Castro
It’s not that we don’t like Bo, we just love Jansen. As we discuss on the podcast, maybe there is a chance that Bo’s public perception was and is a bit too lofty due to people getting caught up in the “Vlad & Bo” phenomenon. The numbers from 2018 don’t concern us though - they are pretty attractive when viewed in the context of his age and defensive position. One big positive from 2018 that doesn’t show up when scouting the stat line is the improved perception of his defensive skills at short, which we heard repeated from various public sector scouts during the year. (Nick)
4. Nate Pearson | RHP | A+ | 22
95% - Justin Verlander / Noah Syndergaard; perennial top 5 SP in baseball
50% - Closer or enigmatic / oft-injured SP
The scouts vs. analysts struggle is a fiction. Analysts do their job with data. Scouts produce data. Analysts and scouts are more symbiotic than antagonistic.
Nate Pearson has 42 total professional innings in two seasons, so the analysts don’t have much statistical data to work with. What they do have is the data that can be collected by radar guns - Pearson chucks triple digit gas. They also have the data that scouts relay - Pearson’s arsenal is nasty. If you said that his repertoire is the filthiest in the minors, you might not be wrong. There is a future universe where Nate Pearson’s best seasons have more WAR than Vladdy Jr.’s.
Low risk prospects who can fill out the back and middle of a rotation are nice, and farm systems need lots of those prospects, but a developmental system is also the only way that a team owned by fucking Rogers Communications is ever going to place a real Ace on the roster for a notable period of time without pissing off the board of directors. Pearson might have screws in his elbow, but these guys whip rocks at max effort for a living, so all of their elbows are essentially screwed, right? (Nick)
5. Kevin Smith | SS | A+ | 23
95% - Brandon Crawford
50% - 2nd division regular or part-time player on a strong MLB team
Like everybody, we appreciate legitimate shortstop prospects with broad skill-sets. Smith was a fantastic draft pick by Toronto and his existence should accelerate the Blue Jays’ competitive timeline. (Nick)
6. Eric Pardinho | RHP | Rk (Adv) | 18
95% - An upgraded version of Marcus Stroman, plus 2 inches
50% - backend MLB SP
The diminutive righty from Brazil signed for $1.4M as the top pitcher from the international free agent class of 2017. He was aggressively placed in short-season Bluefield to start 2018, which is notable because 17-year-olds rarely begin their professional careers in the Appalachian League. Pardinho wasted no time in establishing his dominance over players much older than him, boasting a 3.33 xFIP (2.88 ERA), 31.5 K%, 7.9 BB%, and 15.4 SwStr% in 11 starts. Of the pitchers in the Appy League that threw at least 40 IP, Pardinho ranked 2nd in xFIP, 1st in K%, 15th in BB%, and 7th in SwStr%. He also ranked as the league’s #1 overall pitcher in Nick Hill’s Stat Scouting series. These are fantastic numbers, but what really helps put them into perspective is the fact that Pardinho was the youngest pitcher in the entire league. The average age of a player in the Appy League is approximately 20, so this guy was overpowering hitters that were roughly three years older than him on average. That’s really good!
Pardinho possesses repeatable, clean pitching mechanics, thanks to his strong athleticism. His arsenal consists of four pitches – an excellently-commanded fastball that usually sits in the low-ish 90s that he can ramp up into the mid-90s with some regularity; a plus 83-MPH curveball with 11-5 movement; a developing slider with swing-and-miss potential; and an inconsistent changeup that could improve as he develops it further and gets more reps. As Pardinho adds strength and matures physically, it seems likely that he will add a couple of ticks to his pitch velocity, which would undoubtedly help improve the overall repertoire.
While a placement at Low-A Lansing to start the 2019 season would generally be considered risky for an 18-year-old pitcher, Pardinho has the polish that could help him dominate once again versus older competition, the same way he did in 2018. (Michael)
7. Sean Reid-Foley | RHP | MLB | 23
95% - A 3 WAR pitcher with Robbie Ray K and BB rates
50% - High-leverage bullpen arm
According to the statistical prospect scores I completed a few weeks ago, Sean Reid-Foley and Touki Toussaint, born 10 months apart, were the two best International League pitchers with at least 50 IP. Their K, BB, and FB rates were incredibly close. In abbreviated big-league promotions, both of them missed bats (SRF missed more) and walked too many guys (Touki walked more). Both of their fastballs sat above 93 mph (SRF’s was a bit better).
Touki has made every mainstream top 100 list this offseason, including some top 50 rankings, while SRF has missed all of them. I get it, Touki gets some double-plus grades on the offspeed stuff and that lets scouts dream of top-of-the-rotation potential, but SRF has some above-average stuff too. Reid-Foley’s fastball seems to be a real whiff pitch, up in the zone, in a way that Touki’s isn’t.
I’m not saying SRF is better than Touki, I just think people are sleeping a bit on Reid-Foley. (Nick)
8. Jordan Groshans | 3B/SS | Rk (Adv) | 19
95% - All Star 3B
50% - MLB role player
Groshans was drafted 12th overall in 2018 and hit the ground running in the Gulf Coast League, slashing .331/.390/.500 (150 wRC+) in 159 PA. This offensive outburst earned him a promotion to Bluefield to end the regular season, where his numbers took a noticeable dip over the next 11 games as he acclimated himself to new surroundings and more advanced competition. Groshans fared much better in the playoffs for Bluefield, where he went 7 for 12 with a homer, a double, and two walks in three games. It would be wise to ignore this statistical sample because it’s just too small to glean anything worthwhile from, but by all scouting report accounts, the 18-year-old looked very good in his first taste of professional baseball.
Depending on your source, he’s either 6’3” or 6’4” and somewhere between 178 and 195 lbs. He’s likely to fill out a little bit more as his body matures, which could subsequently push him off short and over to third base. He’s very athletic and boasts a plus arm, so the defense at third should likely grade out as at least average or better, as early scouting reports have indicated. For what it’s worth, Groshans split time between SS and 3B, playing in 21 games at each position over both levels of Rookie ball.
A lot of the publicly-available scouting videos, most of which are from his tenure at Magnolia High School, depict a somewhat problematic swing – he’s not transferring his body weight efficiently and his hips appear to start too early, causing him to overextend by the time he contacts the ball. Ralph Lifshitz of Razzball had this to say back in July:
“This Spring, Groshans quieted his lower half, toning down his leg kick and adjusting his hands. The results have been harder contact, a more direct path to the ball, and better plate coverage.”
This would suggest that he made significant mechanical changes in 2018, and this report has me very excited. One thing that’s very apparent to me when watching video of Groshans is that his bat speed is at least plus, if not double-plus, which helps him generate big-time raw power. Because his bat isn’t long for the zone, he will be able to use this to his advantage as he continues to refine his swing and approach at the plate.
Seriously though, just look at this freaky-deaky bat speed in motion:
It’s important to remember that Groshans is quite raw, as almost any 18-year-old prospect is, but the tools are present and the talent is obvious. Blue Jays’ scouting director, Steve Sanders, previously called him a potential “middle of the lineup” MLB bat. He will likely start the season at Low-A Lansing, and if he begins to put it all together in 2019, we could be looking at one of the top prospects in baseball as early as this time next year. (Michael)
9. Cavan Biggio | 2B/OF | AA | 24
95% - Dan Uggla
50% - Derek Dietrich
Cavan Biggio had a breakout season in 2018, there can be no doubt. At 23, he put up big power numbers, a godly walk rate and stole 20 bases to boot. I was tooting Biggio’s horn all year, but when I sat down to do these rankings, he kept falling further and further down.
New Hampshire is a very cozy hitting environment. Rowdy Tellez experienced this power surge in 2016 and then never recaptured it. It is worth pointing out that, like Tellez, Biggio has never really exhibited plus power prior to playing with the Fisher Cats. He also strikes out a fair amount. There could have been a philosophical change in his hitting style to sell out for more power, but we’ll need to see how things play out in 2019.
That being said, Biggio is nearly major league ready and he will have some defensive utility. He will likely contribute as soon as next season, so we won’t have long to wait to see what he can do. (Alan)
10. Chavez Young | CF | A | 22
95% - Pre-2011 Carl Crawford
50% - 4th OF
If you’ve found yourself wondering who was the only player in the minor leagues to collect 50 extra base hits and steal 40 bases in a season in 2018, you now have the answer. Criminally underrated by the consensus scouting community likely due to his low draft spot (39th round in 2016) and the fact he hails from a non-hotbed of baseball (the Bahamas), Young’s credentials speak for themselves despite flying well under everyone’s radar.
He’s got everything you want in a future CF defensively and has added muscle to his 6’0” 195 frame which should allow for average in-game power in his future from both sides of the plate, though he is a better overall hitter from the left side. From 2017 to 2018, his K rate went down (20.6 to 18.6%), the walk rate more than doubled (4.6 to 10.8%), and power stayed about even (ISO .159 to .160) while moving up a level.
He’s the best OF prospect in the system. (John)
11. Trent Thornton | RHP | AAA | 25
95% - Marco Gonzales, c. 2018
60% - Yusmeiro Petit; effective multi-inning, long-man type with exceptional command
After having pitched well as a starter in the PCL for the Fresno Grizzlies, and then showing very well in multi-inning relief deployment in the Arizona Fall League, Thornton was traded from the Astros to the Blue Jays for Aledmys Diaz on Nov. 17th. Scouts have raved about his ability to spin his breaking balls at an elite rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has said that his curveball regularly exceeds 3000 RPM and his hard slider often approaches that level as well. Longenhagen also goes on to mention that Thornton sits 92-95, touching 96 MPH on occasion with his fastball.
Thornton probably has the combination of stuff, spin rate, deception, and control to become a solid back-end rotation piece at the MLB level, and would almost certainly thrive in a multi-inning relief role where his toolset would see an uptick in effectiveness. We fully expect that the Jays will give Thornton every opportunity to start, but may ultimately try him in some sort of bullpen role if he’s not able to make it work effectively in the majors as a starter. (Michael)
12. Julian Merryweather | RHP | AAA | 27
95% - Mike Clevinger
50% - Up and down SP
We’re high on Merryweather, but there’s a good reason for this: he should be in the majors in 2019 and has a chance to be really good. When he was drafted, Merryweather did not have a great fastball or a great delivery. None of his pitches were of the plus variety and he mostly relied on deception to get around a lack of stuff. It wasn’t until 2016 - when the Indians made efforts to correct a flaw in his delivery, making it more fluid - that he almost immediately made huge gains on his fastball.
Prior to his Tommy John surgery, Merryweather was hitting 97 in games consistently. Couple that with a good curveball, average change, solid command and good work ethic, and here we have a potential solid rotation piece. Jays Journal wrote an in-depth piece on him here.
Sometimes we can get caught up with dreaming about upside, but if Merryweather ends up a #4 or #5 starter - or even a long man - there’s decided value in that and he does have the ability to greatly surpass those expectations. ETA: 2019 (Alan)
13. David Paulino | RHP | MLB | 25
95% - 3 WAR starter; the best player in the Osuna trade
50% - Middle reliever
2013 Tommy John Surgery. 2017 PED suspension. 2018 shoulder injury. All of that is bad, and a recipe for prospect fatigue for a player who was a consensus top 100 prospect before 2017.
Scouting reports of old say Paulino has a full starter’s arsenal, including a plus fastball and curveball. The MLB sample supports this notion, generally. Check out this video. I think the changeup looks more promising than he’s gotten credit for in the past - Paulino has used it a lot in his MLB sample and it looks like a plus pitch to me, at times. He sits 93 and touches 95 with his heater, an above average yet not elite velocity range, but his 6’7” frame is the context for better effective velocity. The stuff hasn’t fallen off.
Paulino’s K-BB numbers have always been great. We just can’t justify putting any other prospects above Paulino - his package of tools and performance is too promising. If he can stay on the field and off the juice (maybe these are big ifs), Paulino still has the chance to reach the same ceiling he was given two years ago when he was making top 100 lists. Buy low! (Nick)
14. Chad Spanberger | 1B/OF | A+ | 23
95% - Adam LaRoche
50% - AAAA player
The scouting reports on Spanberger basically say: 1) 70-grade power 2) contact/strikeout issues 3) not patient enough yet for the power to show up in games. I’m not kidding about #3. Here is Kiley McDaniel:
“The power needs to show up in games and he needs to be patient enough to allow it to happen”
And Prospects Live:
“Will need to show a little more patience in order for his raw power to translate into game power.”
Those are weird statements about a hitter who had a .264 ISO and .355 BABIP this season in A ball, following a .323 ISO in his draft-year debut. Does he need to slug .700 to get credit for his game power?
It’s also worth noting that walk rate is not a very informative thing to focus on when combing the lower levels for future MLB players. #2 is a misleading sentiment too because Spanberger’s K-rate in the SAL was actually better than the league average, which is obviously good for a power prospect.
Most 1B prospects are bad bets, but Spanberger’s “flaws” aren’t really present in his statistical sample. Chad is about as attractive as any 1B prospect you’ll find in A ball. (Nick)
15. Orelvis Martinez | SS | DNP | 17
95% - All Star shortstop
50% - no big league time
See Miguel Hiraldo’s blurb below.
16. Otto Lopez | 2B | A- | 20
95% - Marwin Gonzalez
50% - A really good Buffalo Bison
Much like Chavez Young a little further up the list, Otto is another guy flying under the radar. Signed as an international free agent in 2016, Lopez is another guy whose numbers have only gotten better as he has moved up the ladder. At the highest level of Short Season ball last year all he did was become a Northwest League all star with a 134 wRC+ as a 19 year old, while the rest of the league’s average age was over 21.
It’s effortless swings like this...
...that show his 5’10, 160 pound frame is capable of more power than you’d expect. While he is already slotted at 2B in the low minors, which generally doesn’t bode well for having a solid future major league defensive home, Lopez could be that super-utility type of player that is gaining a lot of popularity around MLB these days. Interestingly, Lopez was also named the best player in Vancouver by 2018 teammate Josh Winckowski during his interview with us on episode 12 of the Radio Scouts Podcast.
Expect him to start 2019 in Lansing and be ready for a decent amount of helium if he shows well. (John)
17. Josh Winckowski | RHP | A- | 21
95% - Mid-rotation SP
50% - MLB depth SP
1% - starves to death in Lansing because Rogers is cheap
6’3” / 185 lbs.? Check.
Induces ground balls at an above average rate? Check.
Strikes guys out at an above average rate? Check.
Doesn’t walk batters? Check.
Mid 90’s fastball? Check.
Average to plus secondary offering with potential future average 3rd pitch? Check.
Sounds like a nice blueprint to start with, doesn’t it? Winckowski, like Otto Lopez above, will get his chance to break out in 2019 with Lansing and prove he belongs among the top names in the system.
Listen to our candid interview with Josh here:
Can someone please give this guy a glove deal? (John)
18. Anthony Alford | CF | MLB | 25
99% - Lorenzo Cain
90% - Ender Inciarte
50% - 4th OF / up and down career
It’s okay to be down on Anthony Alford. The three-time consensus top 100 prospect sucked eggs in 2018 and lost a lot of his lustre. Even in 2017 when he seemed to breakout, there was almost no game power present. The tools are almost certainly real and Alford is only 24 so the potential is present and palpable but this farm system is full of prospects with potential. So here Alford sits, in 18th place, lapped by some players whose combination of tools and results supports their position and above a lot of other prospects that Alford’s tools emphatically embarrass. One day we’ll find out what Toronto has in Alford. (Nick)
19. Santiago Espinal | SS | AA | 24
95% - League average SS; 2 WAR player
50% - Journeyman MLB infielder
Things Santiago Espinal does: plays shortstop, makes contact, avoids groundballs in A+, projects for a better offensive output than Richard Urena despite limited experience above A+. We think that combo is worthy of a top 20 position on an organizational prospect list, even if the 50th percentile outcome here is just a bench infielder. Legitimate shortstop prospects deserve huge positive adjustments on these things. (Nick)
20. Ryan Noda | 1B/OF | A | 23
95% - Matt Olson
50% - Retired within 5 years
Bradley Jones destroyed the Midwest League at 22 years old but hasn’t been able to hit his way out of a glass case of emotion in Dunedin. Ryan Noda’s slash line was sick in 2018 but he was also 22 years old and he whiffed at a 25.6% clip in the process. When I ran the A-ball numbers for the Midwest League Noda didn’t even tabulate as a top 50 hitting prospect, because he was weighed down so much by his age and K rate.
To give Noda some credit, his elite walk rate - evident in both 2018 and 2017 - is a trait that Bradley Jones did not possess. To take that credit away, walk rates from A-ball are not statistically significant predictors of big league success. Personally, I’m not ready to rank Noda within the organizational top 20 but some of the other people whose opinions went into this list like him more than me. There is obviously TTO potential here but I need to see more. (Nick)
21. T.J. Zeuch | RHP | AA | 23
95% - Mid-rotation SP
50% - Depth SP or long reliever
Is Zeuch overrated due to his draft pedigree, or underrated because of his lack of strikeouts? Neither in our opinion - these sentiments counteract to create an appropriate valuation.
Zeuch was the 12th-best statistical pitching prospect in the Eastern League with at least 50 IP in 2018. His low strikeout rate was a detriment, but his age, walk rate, and low home run rate were all positives. His 6’7” frame probably makes the above-average fastball play as a plus pitch, thanks to plane (groundballs) and extension (effective velocity).
The upside here might be limited - a #3 SP outcome is probably being too optimistic unless Zeuch has some type of skill development - but we think T.J. has enough traits to be a reliable back-end major league starter and he’s nearly ready for that role. Even if he can’t start for some reason, the fastball, length, and slider should make for a decent bullpen package. Don’t scout the stat line too hard and get fooled by the low strikeout rate - T.J. isn’t Zoinked yet. (Nick)
22. Miguel Hiraldo | 3B/SS | Rk | 18
95% - Edwin Encarnacion
50% - No big league time
The separation between Orelvis at 15 and Miguel Hiraldo here warrants some explanation. Both of these players were big ticket international free agent infield prospects, with Hiraldo being a year older and coming off a promising 2018 offensive campaign in the Dominican Summer League.
The Blue Jays paid a $750,000 signing bonus to Hiraldo while Orelvis commanded $3.5 million, which we think is an important data point for figuring out which prospect package is more promising. Only ostensibly a shortstop prospect at sixteen years old, there were concerns about Hiraldo’s defensive skills from the moment he signed with Toronto, and the 2018 vids provide some visual evidence of a thicc boi whose lower half will probably be too robust to play up the middle. This defensive projection is further justified by the fact that he received some reps at 3B this year.
In comparison, it sounds like Orelvis has more defensive tools than Hiraldo, and an offensive toolset that is at least similar. Orelvis looks more like a potentially good defender. Shortstop prospects are nice to have because they can slide down the defensive spectrum - lots of the shortstop prospects who work out don’t even end up as starting shortstops in the show. Third base prospects, which Hiraldo probably is going forward, have a lot more pressure on their offensive profiles and will have lower MLB outcome rates. Thus, the gap we see collectively between these two kids. (Nick)
23. Adam Kloffenstein | RHP | Rk | 18
95% - Mid-rotation SP
50% - Zero MLB WAR or less
24. Billy McKinney | OF | MLB | 24
101% - Justin Upton
80% - 2nd Division starting LF
50% - MLB role player
25. Patrick Murphy | RHP | AA | 24
95% - #4 SP
50% - Injury-riddled RP career
26. Cal Stevenson | OF | Rk (Adv) | 22
95% - Brett Gardner, minus the elite defense
50% - No MLB WAR
27. Alejandro Kirk | C | Rk (Adv) | 20
95% - Beefy two-way MLB catcher with power and soft hands
50% - Has a decent career in the Mexican League
20% - Quits baseball and opens his own restaurant
Kirk, at an appropriate age and as a catcher that was throwing out 43% of would-be base stealers, absolutely dominated the rookie Appalachian League. As far as 2018 stats go, Kirk had no red flags in his hitting profile: he struck out less than 10% of the time, walked almost 14% of the time, and went deep 10 times in 244 plate appearances (good for a .204 ISO). On the defensive side, I don’t really agree with the public assumptions that Kirk isn’t a real catcher - looks pretty good defensively in video, particularly the hands.
The reason he doesn’t end up higher here is simply because of his body. At 5’9”, 220 lbs, Kirk could be described as a big boy. Eric Longenhagen was asked about Kirk in a chat as to whether he’s a guy to watch and Eric responded:
“He’s tough because scouts have a hard time looking past his build at this age, which I understand.”
It’s hard to envision a body like that holding up in the long term, even if all the tools are there, and I believe they might be.
Here’s Kirk at the plate with some bonus receiving action:
You can see that he’s not overly aggressive and seems to have good pitch recognition. One beef I do have is that he keeps a lot of weight on his back foot and seems to trade some power for an extra fraction of reaction time. So far it hasn’t hurt him because his home run rate was excellent. On the defensive side, Kirk seems to make receiving look very easy and natural. There’s very little glove movement when he catches the ball and he can pick up low pitches without issue.
Lastly, here’s a Kirk bomb, regular speed and slow motion. This is a very adult swing. Really good hip/body rotation in the swing, which is nice to see with a guy who strikes out so infrequently:
I think Kirk has the tools to be an impact player at the big league level. If he can get in shape while continuing to do what he’s doing, this is one of the biggest sleepers in the entire system. Alejandro likely ends up in Vancouver this season where you’ll be able to catch him on Sportsnet! (Alan)
28. Samad Taylor | 2B | A | 21
98% - Whit Merrifield
50% - Spends a few years on some 40 man rosters; limited MLB time
29. Hector Perez | RHP | AA | 23
95% - Zack Godley or high-leverage RP
50% - MLB cup of coffee; career minor-leaguer
Perez was added to the system via the Roberto Osuna trade and immediately boasted more of the same tantalizing velocity and the deep arsenal that he’d previously shown in the Astros’ organization. The big elephant in the room with Perez is the complete lack of control that the 22-year-old has exhibited thus far in his professional career, though he did improve his BB rate from 6.5/9 in 2017 to 5.0/9 in 2018. Baby steps.
Perez’ fastball has been clocked as high as 102 MPH and his breaking balls grade out as plus, according to various publicly-available scouting reports. The only thing holding him back from becoming a viable mid-rotation starter is the control. Unfortunately, that’s a big thing and it will ultimately dictate what sort of MLB career Perez has, if any.
The ceiling here is very high (#3 SP), but the floor is equally as low (never harnesses his control; out of baseball in a few years or mostly toils around in the minors). My expectation/hope is that he ends up somewhere in the middle – as a high-leverage relief pitcher in the major leagues. (Michael)
30. Andrew Sopko | RHP | AA | 24
95% - Mike Fiers
50% - Depth arm with journeyman career
31. Elvis Luciano | RHP | Rk (Adv) | 19
95% - Poor man’s Yordano Ventura
50% - Returned to Kansas City, has no MLB WAR
Ranking Luciano was hard. Obviously the Blue Jays like the arm a lot - we have to believe that some of the internal reports on Luciano are glowing for them to pick him and ask him to jump from the Appalachian League to the bigs. But as much as they must like him, a soon-to-be 19-year-old making a jump like that has to carry an extremely low-percentage chance of not being returned to Kansas City at some point.
In terms of production, Luciano was the fourth best Appalachian League arm in 2018, based on my z-score rankings that care about age, walk rate, and strikeout rate. The YouTube videos look nice - his delivery kind of reminds me of Yordano Ventura (RIP). The stuff and athleticism and mound presence / confidence are evident.
For the purposes of this list, we suppose a big risk of being returned to another organization based on Rule 5 parameters can be considered similar to the big risk of any lower minors prospect working out at all. It seems appropriate to rank Elvis here, as if he’s a semi-promising arm who is years away from the big leagues. Here is something certain: if Luciano sticks around he’ll be a lot more fun to watch out of the bullpen than Sam Gaviglio. (Nick)
32. Riley Adams | C | A+ | 23
95% - Offense-first MLB catcher; 2nd division starter
50% - Spends a few years on some 40 man rosters
33. Griffin Conine | OF | A- | 22
95% - Scott Schebler
50% - Org dude
34. Thomas Pannone | LHP | MLB | 25
95% - Jaime Garcia, but the flyball version
50% - Depth SP / long relief / low-leverage BP arm
35. Brock Lundquist | OF | A+ | 23
95% - Corey Dickerson
50% - AAAA OF
36. Rowdy Tellez | 1B | MLB | 24
95% - Yonder Alonso
50% - AAAA hitter
Rowdy Tellez’ development has not been linear. He posted good offensive numbers in his first three pro seasons but without the power typical of a 1B prospect. The power did show up via a .233 ISO in New Hampshire, likely thanks in part to a favourable home environment. His game collapsed in AAA in 2017 (73 wRC+) but rebounded in 2018 to a level that still wasn’t overly impressive for a 1B prospect (115 wRC+). He followed all of that up with a tantalizing MLB small sample in 2019 (151 wRC+) that seems shallow upon inspection of his walk and strikeout rates.
When I look at Rowdy as a prospect I can’t help but think about Yonder Alonso, another lefty 1B who posted nice contact rates in the minors with middling power for a 1B and overall hitting that was good but not great. It took Alonso until he was 30 to find his power stroke but 2018 hints that even that revelation may have been a flash in the pan.
Alonso, for some reason, was a top 50 prospect multiple times and he ostensibly had a bit more defensive utility than Rowdy at the start of his career, so he received a lot of rope in the majors. Rowdy isn’t going to get 2500 MLB PA to find himself. If Alonso and his career talent level of 1.0 fWAR per full season is an ~80th percentile outcome for Rowdy, then what does that make Tellez? The answer is: not a top 30 prospect in this deep organization. (Nick)
37. Jonathan Davis | CF | MLB | 27
95% - Great 4th OF or fringe starting OF
50% - Bad 4th/5th OF who is up and down for the next few years
38. Cullen Large | 3B/2B | A | 23
95% - MLB regular 2B
50% - Makes his parents really proud
I wrote up Large a month ago. This is the gist of that write up: If you filter A-ball hitters by those with just 100+ PA, Cullen Large's 177 wRC+ from 2018 is near the top of the list. Unfortunately, he lost nearly 80% of his season due to some injury of which we had trouble uncovering the details.
Reports on Cullen were lukewarm at best coming out of the draft, describing an infielder who could hit but had no standout tools. On the flip side, the Jays gave the guy over $300,000 so they clearly thought there was something to work with. What intrigues us most about his limited 2018 numbers is the .253 ISO from a guy who did not hit one HR the previous season in Vancouver. The walk rate of 11.6% was very good and the K rate of 16.1% was great for someone hitting for power.
We'll (hopefully) see how stable those numbers were come 2019, but there are hints of Cavan Biggio here, who the Blue Jays took in the same round one year before Large, and who also wasn’t exactly beloved at draft time. It's strange to see Toronto actually developing hitting prospects, isn't it? (Nick)
39. Leonardo Jimenez | 2B/SS | Rk | 18
95% - Starting MLB SS
50% - No MLB WAR
40. Forrest Wall | CF | AA | 23
75% - Emilio Bonifacio
50% - replacement level big leaguer
Recent scouting reports on Forrest Wall are not inspiring. Power has never shown up in the minors for Wall and he has a noodle arm. I read or heard somewhere (I can’t remember the source), shortly after Toronto traded for him, that he possesses questionable baseball instincts.
Wall has some positives - at least plus speed and a hit tool with some promise. For Wall, I’m thinking that a good developmental outcome would look something like Emilio Bonifacio, he of 4 career WAR in almost 3000 PA. (Nick)
41. Ronny Brito | SS | Rk (Adv) | 20
95% - Good MLB bench infielder
50% - Org guy
42. Hagen Danner | C | Rk (Adv) | 20
95% - 2nd division starting C
50% - Decent MiLB career
43. Jacob Waguespack | RHP | AAA | 25
95% - #5 starter / depth SP
50% - Never pitches significant MLB innings
44. Mc Gregory Contreras | OF | A- | 20
95% - Mc Something good
50% - Mc Nothing
45. Yennsy Diaz | RHP | A+ | 22
95% - Good reliever
50% - Gets tattooed in a small number of MLB innings
46. Jon Harris | RHP | AAA | 25
95% - A worse Doug Fister / #5 SP
50% - Low-leverage MLB bullpen arm with horrendous numbers
47. Jose Espada | RHP | A- | 22
95% - #5 SP or long reliever
50% - AAA arm
48. Joshua Palacios | CF | AA | 24
95% - MLB regular OF
50% - AAAA career
49. Reese McGuire | C | MLB | 24
95% - Good MLB backup C
50% - 3rd catcher with a spotty career
Catching prospects like McGuire probably get systematically underrated and, now that I am looking at our collective list, I think we are guilty of that. Look at the catchers in the big leagues right now - multiple MLB teams are essentially punting offense at the position because solid catcher defense is so crucial. Reese might have a better chance at a notable MLB career than almost 30 of the names we placed above him. Sorry, Reese. It’s just hard to pay much attention to a mature prospect who hit .233/.312/.339 in AAA even if he was a first rounder half a decade ago. I guess this placement is defensive discrimination. Reese should be up above Tellez. (Nick)
50. Maximo Castillo | RHP | A | 20
95% - Up and down MLB pitcher in some capacity
50% - Out of baseball in a few years, but still gets to go through life named MAXIMOOOOO!
Honourable Mentions/Just Missed
Sean Wymer, Logan Warmoth, Gabriel Moreno, Alberto Mineo, Zach Logue, Max Pentecost, Lazaro Estrada, Jackson McClelland, Demi Orimoloye
Again, here's a link to the spreadsheet if you'd like to cop an ogle at our individual lists and behold the aggregate list breakdown:
Cover image: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Source: Tricia Hall on Flickr
Thanks for reading Organizational Review: Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects. If you have any questions or comments relating to this article, we encourage you to leave them below. For all general inquiries, we can be reached at the following:
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