2019 season stats through 34 games: .277/.331/.546, OPS .877, 129 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, and 1.0 bWAR.
Since his return from Triple-A Buffalo on May 24, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has moved exclusively to left field and has slashed .329/.372/.684, OPS 1.056 and 174 wRC+. In 21 games, he has 26 hits including 7 home runs, 1 triple, 5 doubles, 16 runs, 16 RBIs, and 20 strikeouts to 5 walks (23.3 K% and 5.8 BB%).
Let’s take a look at all of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s extra-base hits since his return to the big leagues:
On these hits, his average exit velocity is 101.51 mph with an average distance of 384 ft. Gurriel Jr. has largely been a streaky hitter since his MLB debut in 2018. His defense has been questionable and his walk rates have been low, but when he gets on a hitting streak the bat is as loud as anybody’s in the Blue Jays’ lineup.
He’s racked up extra-base hits against all types of pitches, including four-seamers, two-seamers, cutters, multiple sinkers, several sliders, changeups, and curveballs. Impressively, Lourdes had seven straight games of extra-base hits, a triple against Zack Greinke at the Rogers Centre, and a dinger off of Blake Snell at Tropicana Field. And on top of all of this, he’s looked comfortable in left field.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. currently ranks #1 on the team with an .877 OPS, #1 with .546 SLG, #2 with .277 AVG, #4 with .331 OBP, and #2 in position player bWAR at 1.0 with only 34 games played. By comparison, Smoak has played 62 games and has a 0.4 bWAR.
So, what exactly has changed for Gurriel Jr. that turned his season around? Was it really just as simple as finding him a comfortable defensive position?
One thing that stands out right away is the number of walks. Gurriel finished 2018 with a 3.4% walk rate. He currently has a 6.2% walk rate this season, which is almost double. This has led to an improved BB/K ratio from .153 to .252. So not only is he hitting breaking balls, he’s swinging less often at bad ones and putting himself into better counts and occasionally taking walks.
His Barrel % has jumped from 7.8% last season to 12.5% this season, which is well above the MLB average of 6.3%, and he’s also maintaining a solid 42.0% hard hit rate (MLB average is 34.3%).
He’s pulling the ball less often and hitting more up the middle, and his batted ball profile reflects this: pull/cent/oppo has changed from 45.1%/26.9%/28% to 35.9%/37.2%/26.9%. That’s a very nicely balanced batted ball profile.
He’s seeing more pitches, swinging on fewer bad pitches, using all fields, and hitting the ball very hard. This is a very good formula to be a productive MLB hitter. But how does this compare to other MLB hitters with similar profiles?
We have a list of both young players and respectable MLB veterans here that not only know how to hit baseballs, but can do some serious damage with their bats. It’s difficult to find an exact comp for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He has played corner outfield and middle infield positions, while hitting for power, but striking out a fair amount and coupling that with a low walk rate. But so far in 2019, he’s put up some comparable numbers to all of the players above.
If Gurriel can continue to develop and settle into a 2B/LF type of role, while hitting like the Blue Jays’ version of Marcell Ozuna, Avisall Garcia, or Eddie Rosario, the future is very bright. With a relatively small gain in plate discipline and finding comfort with his new position, Gurriel Jr. could continue to be an impact bat in the lineup.
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