Each season, fans of every organization around baseball attempt to pinpoint the next breakout superstar. In most cases, this is usually related to fantasy baseball where everyone is looking for a diamond in the rough that will grow into the next great player. Breakout candidates do not all turn into major stars – and most do not even ultimately breakout – but it’s always worth the attempt to find that one guy that the majority are overlooking and take a chance on them when no one else is. Zig where others zag, essentially.
When looking at breakout candidates for non-fantasy purposes, it’s worthwhile to identify the players in question for the purposes of tracking their progress. Whether it's taking a deep dive into minor league stats to spot a hidden gem or analyzing exit velocities of lesser known players, there is a wide variety of tools at our disposal that can be utilized to try to establish potential breakout candidates. Some top choices are:
For hitters:
K%
BB%
XBH/ISO
OPS
wRC+
For pitchers: K/9 BB/9 FIP
For all players: Age/level Playing time
In 2019, the Blue Jays organization will be putting an emphasis on playing the youth, which means they will be of particular interest to our exercise. There are many potential breakout candidates from the MLB level all the way down to Rookie ball. Let’s focus on five players in the organization that have a good chance to breakout this season.
MLB: Tim Mayza
Tim Mayza is in a prime position to have a huge season for the Blue Jays. In 2018, Mayza pitched 35.2 innings with a 3.28 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and probably the best stat – 10.09 K/9. In 2017, he pitched 17 innings and had an amazing 14.29 K/9, albeit in a small sample. What makes him particularly worthy for breakout consideration is the fact that he’s a left-handed pitcher that can pitch to both RHH and LHH effectively, but he can also be used in a lefty specialist (LOOGY) role when needed.
Another key factor propelling Mayza into a potential breakout season is the fact he’s the only traditional LHP in the bullpen on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster at the time of this writing. Unless the front office adds via a trade or signing, look for Tim Mayza to have a breakout season in the bullpen. From a fantasy perspective, he will rack up the Ks and could add a good amount of Holds.
AAA: Anthony Alford
In recent memory, AAA hasn’t been kind to the Jays for the most part, as it hasn’t yielded many high-ceiling prospects to benefit the big club. However, with Danny Jansen now in the fold and Vlad Jr. on his way, things are decidedly looking up. There’s also one Anthony Alford, who has been an absolute enigma to this point.
Alford is the #5 prospect in the organization according to MLB Pipeline, but has struggled recently. Alford hit .240 with 5 HR, 17 SB, 7.2 BB% and 26.9 K% in 105 games this past season at AAA. He has the tools to make any fan drool, but he just hasn't put it together above AA. Playing football and suffering through a rash of injuries have put Alford behind the mark in the last couple of years, but he is afforded another chance at a breakout season.
2018 was the first season Alford eclipsed the 110-game plateau and wasn't completely held back by injuries. What the stats show is someone who needs to get back to making better contact and taking walks. In 2017 while at AA, which was his best minor league season to date, Alford hit .310 in 68 games. Most telling from that year was his BB% of 12.1 and K% of 15.6. After this point, he was shuffled between the majors and AAA in between injuries, which has subsequently slowed Alford's progress.
After a full season at AAA in 2018, expect Alford to come out in 2019 ready for a breakout season. He needs to maintain a BB% and K% closer to what he put up back in AA. That will be the key to Alford turning things around and coming back into the conversation as an everyday MLB player. There’s still hope, although he’s running out of time and opportunity.
AA: Nate Pearson
Nate Pearson, a personal favorite of mine, is the #4 prospect in the system, as per MLB Pipeline. He has all the potential in the world, but he’s another player whose breakout will hinge upon health. In 2018, Pearson pitched only 1.2 innings following an oblique strain and was subsequently hit by a line drive, breaking his ulna. This all but wiped out his entire 2018 season, unfortunately.
To make up for missed development time, Pearson participated in the Arizona Fall League. Following a rough start, he came on with an unabashed vengeance. He was dominating by the end of the AFL’s abbreviated season and looked like the potential ace we can all dream on. He has an electric fastball that reaches triple digits with some regularity – even hitting 104 MPH in the Fall Stars game – and a wipeout slider that flashes plus-plus, according to Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs.
If Pearson can stay healthy in 2019, he could make quick work of the minors and could find himself breaking into the majors as the Jays’ expected competitive window begins. A full, healthy season could also propel Pearson to star prospect status and it’s only a matter of time after that before he makes it to the big leagues.
A: Ryan Noda
Ryan Noda, the #30 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, had a really good year at A-ball last season, compiling 48 XBH (including 20 HR) with a .905 OPS, 160 wRC+, and 20.7 BB%. On the flip side, it also included a .256 AVG, and a 25.6 K%. The BB% is well above the mean and held consistent with his walk rate in rookie ball the season prior.
The issue holding Noda back from becoming an upper echelon prospect is his K%. The wRC+, BB%, OPS, and HR numbers show a hitter that can become a star if he can lower the K% - which would likely increase his average as well. Expect Noda to start in High-A in 2019. If he decreases his K% while maintaining the BB%, he could vault himself up prospect boards considerably.
Rookie: Orelvis Martinez
Orelvis Martinez is ranked the #13 prospect in the organization by MLB Pipeline and could be the next great star in the system. Martinez is just 17 years old and was Baseball America’s fifth-ranked international prospect in a talented pool of players.
If everything goes as planned, Martinez could take a similar path to stardom that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette have. But before we get ahead of ourselves, he will need to get his feet wet in Rookie ball and have success there first. This is a prospect to keep your eye on for the foreseeable future and you should track his progress closely. He is kind of a wild card breakout candidate, but he has the physical ability to take the minors by storm like recent international sensations Wander Samuel Franco, George Valera, Julio Rodriguez, and Kristian Robinson.
There you have it – five breakout candidates in the Jays’ organization to keep an eye on in the upcoming season. All five stand out for various reasons, but they have one aspect in common – they’ve all flashed the tools necessary to facilitate a breakout. Whether it’s Tim Mayza and his K%, Anthony Alford’s AA season, Nate Pearson’s fastball/slider combo, Ryan Noda’s elite BB%, or Orelvis Martinez and his flashy tools but unseen potential; to officially breakout, these five players will need to improve upon certain aspects of their game when given the opportunity to do so, and here’s hoping they trend in the right direction this season.
Thanks for reading Get to Know: 5 Breakout Candidates by Daniel Labude. If you have any questions or comments relating to this article, we encourage you to leave them below. For all general inquiries, we can be reached at the following:
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