2019 season stats through 28 games: .244/.373/.456, .829 OPS, 124 OPS+, 123 wRC+
All stats updated through June 28, 2019
When Cavan Biggio was called up to debut against the Padres on May 24, we knew he was a left-handed bat that could hit for power and had solid plate discipline.
Through his minor league breakout in 2018 and spectacular 2019 Triple-A debut, fans have speculated that the young Biggio had the upside and ceiling of players like Ben Zobrist, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Carpenter, and Dan Uggla. Though the comps were not perfect, there were arguments for those comparisons, as it’s not difficult to see his offensive upside and positional flexibility.
So far, Statcast disagrees. Through a small 20 game sample, Biggio’s advanced metrics are not only solid, it puts him in the conversation with some of the elite hitters in baseball.
In the Statcast era where launch angles and exit velocities are prevalent, three-true-outcome type hitters (strikeouts, walks, or homers) like Biggio are not uncommon. But let’s look at the two aspects of Biggio’s bat that makes him a special hitter - power and plate discipline.
Elite Left-Handed Power
Biggio currently sports a 48.3% hard hit rate, 11.7% Barrel rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and a solid 16.7% HR/FB ratio. These are all great numbers, where the league average is 34.3%, 6.3%, and 87.4 mph respectively. He flashed this power with his first dinger right into the 4th deck above the Rogers Centre Level of Excellence and into the Roy Halladay Suites.
Via baseballsavant.mlb.com
Though a lot of his power comes from the pull side, he was a balanced hitter in triple-A hitting 43.2%/21.6%/35.1% Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%. His batted ball profile should balance out in the MLB in a bigger sample size.
Elite Strike-Zone Recognition and Plate Discipline
Biggio has a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .361 and has a top-tier 17.1% walk rate, which directly translated from 17.8% in Double-A and 19.5% in Triple-A.
Biggio carries a 10.2% chase rate, which would be #1 in the majors among qualified hitters. And as Derek Finik from Fangraphs recently pointed out last week, his 11.9 O-Swing % marks the lowest in baseball (currently 12.4%) and he’s projected to finish the season swinging only 19.4% of pitches outside the strike zone, which would put him among the top 10 in baseball.
This graph shows thirty-two MLB hitters this season, including four Blue Jays. The MLB average for walk rate is 8.3% and chase rate is 28.1%. With most of these being well established hitters having great seasons. The best hitters in baseball trend towards the lower-right quadrant where walk numbers are high and chase rates are low.
However, it’s easy to see that elite MLB bats can be successful regardless of how much they walk, as long as they hit the ball hard and often. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who currently has a 151 wRC+, 12.8% barrel % and 43.6% hard hit %, is a perfect example.
But even among the most elite MLB hitters, two names stand out right away: Mike Trout and Cavan Biggio.
Trout is once again having an amazing season, he is already worth over 5 fWAR at the midway point of the season and also has a ridiculously high 20% walk rate and 17.1% chase rate. Alex Bregman and Daniel Vogelbach are not lagging too far behind either.
But Cavan Biggio has come out of nowhere to cement himself in the upper echelon in this category. In fact, Biggio leads all major league hitters with an absurd 10.2% chase rate while being top tier percentile in walk rate.
To put things into perspective, $330 million dollar man Bryce Harper is walking at a great clip of 15.2% but is chasing just worse than league average at 29.8%, while $300 million dollar man Manny Machado is a slight above average in both categories with 10.1% and 27.4% respectively. More examples include Cody Bellinger, who’s having a monstrous season and is putting up a 15.4% walk rate and 22.8% chase rate. And 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich is putting up a 13.3% walk rate and 28.1% chase rate.
Other names in the graph that were not labeled include: Charlie Blackmon, Khris Davis, Marwin Gonzalez, Gary Sanchez, Trevor Story, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Chapman, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Carpenter, Edwin Encarnacion, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Judge, Max Muncy, Brandon Belt, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, and Daniel Vogelbach.
If you think about it, what Biggio is doing is quite unprecedented. To have both elite plate discipline peripherals while also hitting near 12% barrel rate and 48% hard hit rate on Statcast suggest that his ceiling should be way above an average MLB hitter.
These numbers are absolutely mind-boggling for any hitter in baseball, let alone a rookie. His 0.7 bWAR in 28 games is a solid start. If he was qualified, Biggio’s 91.9 mph average exit velocity would also put him inside the top 20 in baseball, next to Tommy Pham, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Rendon, and Cody Bellinger.
Trying to find a comp for Cavan Biggio has proven to be quite challenging due to his unique skill set. We can expect that his numbers would normalize over a full season, but if we get this type of hitter when he hits his prime, what type of ceiling are we looking at for Biggio?
Going through a list of excellent hitters that somewhat matches Biggio’s current Statcast trends, we see a lot of solid first baseman like Carlos Santana, Daniel Vogelbach, Rhys Hoskins, and Brandon Belt.
We see some great numbers like Sanata’s creme-of-the-crop 16.6% chase rate and 46.5% hard hit rate, and a 10.4% barrel rate.
Then there’s Mariner’s breakout star Vogelbach’s 14.1% barrel rate, 18.3% walk rate, and 18.7% chase rate, but only 38.9% hard hit rate and 89.9 mph exit velocity. Brandon Belt also suffers from slightly lower exit velocities and hard hit rate.
While all of these players are great hitters, Cavan Biggio is not a first baseman. He has played some first base, but has primarily been an average second baseman and currently learning to spell some corner outfield. His Statcast sprint speeds are also above average, which is much better than the names above. But it’s not difficult to see how special Biggio’s bat is to be compared to some of the hitters above.
We then move onto non-first baseman: Kyle Schwarber, Matt Carpenter, and Tommy Pham. Schwarber is a solid left-handed bat that plays left field and sports an obscene 52.7% hard hit rate and 14% barrel rate, but couples that with a 24.1% chase rate and a less-impressive (though still very good) 11.7% walk rate.
Matt Carpenter plays mostly third base, but has played some outfield in the past. He's currently the owner of a 34.9% hard hit rate and 8% barrel rate, but did put up much better numbers when he was younger.
Tommy Pham possesses great plate discipline and hits for some power, but he plays center field and is a right-handed hitter.
By now we should see the difficulty in finding a great comp for Cavan Biggio. Not only does the comp need to have elite plate discipline, he has to walk a ton, hit for power, have positional versatility, and hit left-handed. This is a really tall order.
But going through lots of names, there was one name that somewhat met the criteria of most categories: LA Dodgers’ Max Muncy. Let’s compare their Statcast numbers:
The numbers for both players are very solid. Muncy has demonstrated his elite bat since the 2018 season and is currently on pace to top 5 fWAR in 2019. Though not exact, the plate discipline, power, handedness, and positional flexibility fit both profiles. Biggio’s numbers look very impressive and stack up well in most categories.
If Biggio could just go ahead and become our Max Muncy, that would be great.
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