Beware the Ginger

The Yankees demoted Clint Frazier today to make room on their roster for Edwin Encarnacion. The former top prospect and fifth overall draft pick is hitting .283/.330/.513 on the year, good for a .349 wOBA.

Ostensibly Frazier has taken another developmental step forward - for a top prospect he struggled a bit in AAA in 2016 and 2017 (a bad 90 wRC+ followed by a pedestrian 123 mark) before figuring out that league in 2018 (170 wRC+). He seemed to really be getting the hand of the MLB level this year, so the demotion appears ill-timed for his continued MLB development, but it was probably inevitable with Stanton scheduled to return in two days and Judge on a rehab assignment. There is simply nowhere for Frazier to play on New York's roster when Hicks, Stanton, Judge, and Gardner are healthy, especially with Voit and Edwin now occupying the 1B/DH roles.

The Yankees will be on the hunt for a starter this trade deadline. Domingo German, Luis Severino, and Jonathan Loaisiga have gone down and Happ and Sabathia both have FIPs north of 5.35. Toronto has perhaps the best starter available in trade in Marcus Stroman, and a clear need for young, controllable outfield talent, so the stars seem to be aligning for another Toronto and New York starting pitcher trade at the deadline.

In all likelihood, the teams have already kicked around Stroman and Frazier in hypothetical deals.

Read nearly any article about Frazier's demotion and you'll see Stroman's name. This one suggests that Frazier would be an overpay for a rental like Bumgarner but New York would "have to seriously consider swapping him" for a controllable arm like Stroman.

Yeah, no shit. Despite the former top prospect status and the nice slash-line this year, Clint Frazier might be pretty awful.

His process offensively and his other skills on the field leave a lot to be desired. Frazier's 6.2% BB rate and 28.2% K rate this year suggest that he might not be patient enough, and he may not make enough contact, to perform at this offensive level consistently. The projections definitely aren't buying it yet, as ZiPS and Steamer both think he is closer to an average stick.

The defense has been atrocious (-19.2 UZR/150) and the source of an immense amount of criticism in New York. The baserunning has been below average.

Even the fancy stats smell a bit of a mirage - Statcast's expected wOBA for Clint is .033 lower than his actual wOBA, making him the 41st luckiest qualified hitter in baseball and only slightly less lucky this year than Eric Sogard.

The total package, for me, is uncomfortably similar to Teoscar Hernandez. Check out how their career stats and rest of season projections (Fangraphs Depth Charts) stack up:

Frazier might have the physical tools to tighten up his defensive game a little bit. He likely has a better hit tool than Teoscar so continued development and adjustments might see his offensive profile rise above the "hacker with power" mold of Teoscar. But theoretical upside aside, Frazier's MLB sample has not been particularly good and he does not project to be particularly good, for obvious reasons.

This is not the centrepiece you trade Marcus Stroman for. As much as I want a young outfielder on the Blue Jays who is charismatic and confident, a former 5th overall pick, a fiery ginger, a hitter with quick hands, a guy who rocks custom sneaker-cleats, and a solid MLB player, Clint Frazier is unfortunately all of those things except the last one.

Don't let Brian Cashman fool you twice, Ross.

The cover image source is Keith Allison on Flickr: Link

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