Spring Training is currently at-bat, rampant optimism on deck, and an onslaught of platitudes in the hole. At this time of year, every player is “in the best shape of his life”; countless others “worked on a new pitch” or “changed their launch angle” to “join the flyball revolution”. Some get eyeglasses or laser eye surgery; each team is “a team” with “great chemistry”, and so on and so forth. Sure, some of this is probably genuinely true, but if you were to poll every single player and manager, virtually every one of them would spout similar clichés.
In less than two weeks, Spring Training will wrap up and the season will truly commence. The upcoming two-game series in Japan is, technically, the official start, though I’m not sure what compelled MLB to include these two games as part of the regular season schedule. Anyway, I digress.
With the weather inevitably beginning to warm up and the snow slowly subsiding – surrendering its dominant position to the occasionally-submissive glorious green grass laying just underneath – baseball is firmly entrenched in our minds. Optimism, as I alluded to previously, is at an all-time high at this time of year. What better time than this very moment to bestow upon you, the sexy reader, a series of bold predictions regarding your Toronto Blue Jays.
Very shortly, you’ll read a list – it’s in no particular order, for the record. Contained in this list is a top ten of my own bold predictions that probably have something like a ~10% chance of happening. Honestly, if even one of them comes to fruition, I’ll be content; two, I’ll be ecstatic. If I get half of them or more correct, I’ll share my lotto numbers with you.
Without further ado, allow me to unveil my list of predictions that could happen, but probably won’t.
1. Danny Jansen has a 4-fWAR rookie season
Steamer: 396 PA / 12 HR / .256 BA / .335 OBP / .423 SLG / .166 ISO / 108 wRC+ / 2.4 WAR
This would almost certainly put him in the Rookie of the Year race, although he might find himself in the running anyway with less WAR than this. Steamer projects Jansen for 396 plate appearances, which feels a little on the light side to me, and 2.4 fWAR. Realistically, I could see Jansen amassing roughly 3 fWAR with 50-100 additional PA. Of course, this is assuming Jansen doesn’t take a hefty step backward after a fantastic season at AAA and in a brief stint with the Jays in September.
2. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. gets 60+ XBH
Steamer: 472 PA / 16 HR / .266 BA / .301 OBP / .428 SLG / .162 ISO / 97 wRC+ / 1.6 WAR
Yeah, I’m utterly bonkers. Lourdes is projected to hit 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 2019, per Steamer. I’m predicting a 50% increase on those numbers. Why would I predict this? Well, Lourdes hits the ball hard and I think he’ll find himself in the lineup most games, which could lead to significantly more extra base hits than 39. Steamer projects him for 472 PA – assuming health, I think he comfortably tops this number.
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the AL in batting average and wins AL ROTY
Steamer: 535 PA / 22 HR / .306 BA / .368 OBP / .511 SLG / .205 ISO / 138 wRC+ / 4.6 WAR
It seemed a foregone conclusion that little Vlad would be called up to the majors sometime in the second or third week of April, once the Jays had gained an extra year of team control on his first contract. In case you’ve been living under a rock, #27 has since suffered a Grade 1 (non-severe) oblique strain and is likely to be sidelined for three weeks or so. Not to be a wet blanket, but oblique injuries tend to linger longer than they should. Even if Vlad returns to action when expected, he will need some time to get into game shape before being called up.
For the sake of this prediction, let’s assume a call-up at the end of April. If Vlad can stay relatively healthy for the rest of the season, he might still qualify for the batting title. Steamer believes Vlad will hit .306 next season, which pegs him to (*drum roll*) win the AL batting title! Colour me incredibly skeptical of this, as he shares a league with superstars like Trout, Betts, Jose Ramirez, Altuve, J.D. Martinez, and Lindor. Chances are that one of these guys goes ham this season to best Vlad in this department.
If VGJ does anywhere near as well as Steamer projects, he’s got to be a lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year. You might think it ill-advised to call this prediction bold, and, honestly, I don’t necessarily believe you’d be wrong to think that. After all, the most famous public projection system available is on your side! So, I’ll offer an olive branch of peace: If these two things happen (and chances are they won’t), I’ll only take a half-point.
4. Anthony Alford is the best OF on the team
Steamer: 74 PA / 1 HR / .228 BA / .295 OBP / .337 SLG / .109 ISO / 74 wRC+ / 0.0 WAR
Alford is trending upward, and while I don’t put much stock into Spring Training results, he’s having a fantastic showing in the Grapefruit League. He’s made some notable changes at the plate this offseason and just might have unocked an approach that works. I don’t believe he cracks the Opening Day roster, but if Alford can continue his success into the season, he won’t be long for AAA.
For the purpose of this prediction, I’m going to use fWAR to determine how wrong I am at season’s end. It’ll be tough to best Grichuk and Pillar in wins above replacement, but who knows – maybe Alford will take us by surprise.
5. Randal Grichuk stays healthy and puts up a career-best season
Steamer: 566 PA / 30 HR / .243 BA / .298 OBP / .490 SLG / .247 ISO / 110 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR
Grichuk’s previous season-high for fWAR is the 3.0 mark he accumulated in 2015 – his official rookie season. My prediction thinks he’ll top that and do so by not missing any significant time like he has in seasons past.
6. Brandon Drury strokes 20+ dongers
Steamer: 301 PA / 7 HR / .244 BA / .307 OBP / .391 SLG / .146 ISO / 90 wRC+ / 0.5 WAR
Brandon Drury has somewhat recently made strides to hit the ball in the air more often than he used to. Brandon Drury has also earned himself a starting role at 3B to begin the season. Brandon Drury now plays in a home park that’s considered home run-friendly.
With the opportunity to put behind him the recent rash of injuries and ailments of yesteryear (migraine and vision issues as a result of an irritated tendon in his neck, and a fractured hand), I’m going out on a limb that Brandon Drury will essentially re-invent himself this season at the major league level.
Wish me luck!
7. Marcus Stroman flirts with a 3.00 ERA; career-best FIP of 3.35
Steamer: 177 IP / 6.84 K/9 / 2.91 BB/9 / 56.9 GB% / 4.13 ERA / 4.03 FIP / 3.89 xFIP / 2.5 WAR
Welp. Maybe Marcus gets traded to New York, Pittsburgh, or Houston and this prediction stands a chance of happening.
8. David Paulino is the team’s best relief pitcher by season’s end
Steamer: 50 IP / 9.65 K/9 / 2.95 BB/9 / 38.3 GB% / 4.00 ERA / 3.95 FIP / 3.99 xFIP / 0.2 WAR
This assumes that Paulino spends the majority of the season in the MLB bullpen, which seems more and more likely by the day. There is a chance the Jays assign him to AAA to stretch him out as a starter, though.
Honestly, this is ballsy, though it probably stands a slightly better chance than a few of the other predictions on this list. Ken Giles, though, is an ace reliever. Ryan Tepera is pretty good, as well. Unless they get traded during the season, this probably has a snowball’s chance in hell of materializing.
9. Elvis Luciano remains with the team for the duration of the season
Steamer: 30 IP / 5.56 K/9 / 7.19 BB/9 / 44.6 GB% / 6.46 ERA / 6.56 FIP / 6.41 xFIP / -0.7 WAR
Fun fact: If Elvis Luciano heads north with the team on March 27th, he will become the first player born this millennium to play in the major leagues.
Luciano was plucked from the Royals in the Rule 5 Draft in December and was only made available due to a technicality where his first contract was voided because of a failed physical. Loopholes. He’s 19 and has never pitched above Rookie ball. Scouts like Luciano a great deal, as do the Blue Jays (obviously). This is an interesting scenario, as this is an unprecedented but potentially astute move made by GM Ross Atkins.
The caveat of such a move is that Luciano needs to remain with the Blue Jays at the MLB level all season or he gets returned to the Royals. Chances are that Luciano gets lit up like a Christmas tree in a relief role at the MLB level and, subsequently, is returned to the Royals. But maybe – just maybe – he pitches just well enough to grind out some garbage-time innings and can be sent to the minors next season to develop properly.
10. The Jays win 84 games, miss the playoffs by 3 games
Steamer: 76-86
For the sake of this fake exercise, I’m going to assume that a few of these predictions transpire and, thusly, the Jays exceed mathematical expectations to make the playoff race interesting into the season’s final week or so. Ultimately, they fall short, but the future looks very bright with more prospect firepower on the way.
Hopefully, most of you agree that the above predictions are unlikely to happen, thus rightfully qualifying them as bold. Eyeballing Steamer projections as a baseline, I’ve concluded that these are indeed wacky, zany, nutty, crazy, batshit-insane – pick your synonym. Boldness is in the eye of the beholder, so some of you optimists out there may think some of these are slam dunks to happen. Let me be the first to tell you that you’re wrong, but every single one of these things is not impossible. There is some semblance of hope.
At season’s end, we’ll revisit these together to assess the damage. Undoubtedly, it will be an exercise in downright hilarity to determine by how much I missed the mark.
Let’s go Jays!
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